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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.